As the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, pressure on the White House also grows to demonstrate strength and deliver concrete results on the international stage. In contexts of war or prolonged instability, governments tend to seek political, military, or diplomatic victories that reinforce their domestic position and external credibility.

The escalation in the Middle East reveals not only a regional conflict, but a structural crisis of the international system, marked by internal fractures in the United States, strategic divergences in Europe, economic contradictions, and the weakening of International Law, demonstrating that power and interests prevail over norms and traditional alliances.

The recent military escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz has once again placed one of the most critical energy chokepoints of the global system at the center of international politics. While public debate often highlights the most visible aspects of the crisis—attacks on vessels, drones, and naval operations—the strategic importance of the strait goes far beyond its immediate military dimension.

The war in the Middle East is occurring at a decisive moment, when the European Union faces growing internal criticism of its climate policies. This is reflected in calls from national governments and industry leaders to increase pressure on Europe’s emissions trading system, or even to reduce carbon emission targets for new vehicles. Thus, the rise in oil and gas prices since the beginning of the war against Iran on February 28, 2026 represents a significant risk to the prog