Due the war in Iran Brazil has been developing initiatives aimed at increasing its national energy autonomy. Projects to expand refining capacity—such as the enlargement of the Abreu e Lima Refinery—seek to increase domestic diesel production, aiming to reduce national vulnerability to potential international crises related to the oil market.

According to power transition theory, when a rising power approaches the level of a dominant power, rivalry and instability tend to increase (Organski, 1958). In turn, offensive realism argues that states seek to maximize their relative power as a way to ensure their survival in an anarchic international system (Mearsheimer, 2001).

As the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, pressure on the White House also grows to demonstrate strength and deliver concrete results on the international stage. In contexts of war or prolonged instability, governments tend to seek political, military, or diplomatic victories that reinforce their domestic position and external credibility.

The escalation in the Middle East reveals not only a regional conflict, but a structural crisis of the international system, marked by internal fractures in the United States, strategic divergences in Europe, economic contradictions, and the weakening of International Law, demonstrating that power and interests prevail over norms and traditional alliances.