Africa–Asia: Growth Dynamics and Geoeconomic Recomposition

Introduction

For several decades, the global development imaginary has been consolidated into a rigid dichotomy: Asia as the engine of world growth and Africa as a marginal continent within the international economic system. This narrative, widely reproduced in political, media, and academic discourse, fails to capture the complexity and heterogeneity of African trajectories.

In recent decades, structural transformations have been observed in the geography of global growth, reflected in rising investment flows, productive diversification, and integration into global value chains. Projections from multilateral institutions indicate that, by 2026–2027, Africa’s average growth rate could surpass that of Asia—not as a simple inversion of hierarchies, but as a signal of profound shifts in the dynamics of the global capitalist system.

1. The Africa–Asia Relative Rebalancing in the Global Economic System

Asia remains the main center of gravity for global growth. Countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea account for an overwhelming proportion of global GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP). However, their growth dynamics show signs of structural slowdown, reflecting demographic constraints (population aging), saturation of infrastructure investments, and geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific that pressure traditional export chains.

In contrast, Africa is emerging as a hub for capital attraction that goes beyond mere resource extraction. The continent is expected to account for roughly 90% of global population growth by 2050, with more than half of its population living in rapidly expanding urban areas—factors that increase both labor supply and domestic consumer markets.

This urban demographic boom is accompanied by unprecedented foreign direct investment (FDI) flows: in 2024, FDI inflows to the continent reached approximately USD 97 billion, equivalent to around 6% of global flows—almost double what they represented a decade ago.

This expansion of capital is not limited to isolated projects in North Africa (e.g., the Noor Solar Complex in Morocco[1]) but spans sectors such as infrastructure, energy, manufacturing, and services, revealing a recycling of the vectors of global economic growth.

Infrastructure investments, in particular, function as platforms to leverage productive advancement and regional integration, creating synergies with external markets and enhancing competitiveness. These flows do not indicate an immediate redistribution of global economic power but point to a strategic reconfiguration: Africa ceases to be automatically peripheral and becomes a global space for attracting capital, technology, and competition among established and emerging powers.

2. Differentiated Regional Dynamics and National Strategies

African growth is deeply heterogeneous. Rather than a uniform pattern, distinct regional trajectories are observed—each articulating national policies, comparative assets, and international partnerships in specific ways.

2.1 East Africa: State-Led Industrialization and Infrastructure

East Africa stands out for its strategic push toward industrialization. Ethiopia exemplifies this trajectory: between 2010 and 2023, the country recorded average growth rates often exceeding 8%, supported by massive public infrastructure investments and deliberate industrial policies. The expansion of industrial parks—such as Hawassa Industrial Park, costing over USD 300 million and providing tens of thousands of direct jobs—illustrates this state-led industrialization strategy. This infrastructure, specialized in textiles and garments, attracts foreign capital and integration into global value chains.

Moreover, the Ethiopian government has promoted the transformation of industrial parks into special economic zones to enhance FDI attractiveness, with more than ten parks recently elevated to this status.

The physical connection between industrial interiors and external markets is strengthened by the Ethiopia–Djibouti railway, which reduces logistics costs and transport time between the interior and the port, decisively contributing to the competitiveness of manufactured exports. Additional transport corridor projects connecting Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Djibouti are receiving financing of approximately USD 214.4 million from the African Development Bank, reinforcing regional connectivity.

2.2 West Africa: Modernized Ports and Natural Resources as Development Drivers

West Africa presents a distinct trajectory, marked by investments in port modernization and the exploitation of mineral and agro-industrial resources.

Subregions such as Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire concentrate a large share of FDI entering the region.

Strategic ports, such as Cotonou (Benin) and Lagos (Nigeria), have been targeted by expansion and modernization programs that improve regional logistics efficiency. In parallel, bauxite and iron ore mining projects in Guinea—such as the Simandou project, with a projected capacity of around 120 million tons per year—promise to profoundly alter national export profiles and generate significant fiscal revenues from 2025 onwards (with estimates suggesting the country’s GDP could double from this single project).

These drivers combine natural resources with logistics infrastructure, creating platforms for regional integration and competitive insertion into global markets.

3. Côte d’Ivoire: A Laboratory of Growth and Structural Tensions

Côte d’Ivoire represents a paradigmatic case of sustained growth and the many tensions accompanying Africa’s economic transition.

After a prolonged period of political-military crises between 2002 and 2011, the country experienced rapid recovery, with an average growth rate above 6% per year between 2012 and 2022. Institutional consolidation enabled a robust set of public investments, particularly in road, energy, and urban infrastructure. Abidjan has consolidated as a regional financial and logistics hub, hosting the headquarters of banks, multinationals, and international institutions.

The autonomous port of Abidjan, with over 30 million tons of annual traffic, is a pillar of this dynamic, serving as an entry point for regional trade and for landlocked neighboring countries.

3.1 Agriculture, Commodities, and Industrial Transformation

The Ivorian economy remains deeply anchored in agriculture. Côte d’Ivoire accounts for approximately 40% of global cocoa production, giving it systemic importance in the global cocoa market. However, the low rate of local processing (less than 35%) highlights industrial and financing limitations that reduce the ability to capture value added domestically.

The strategic challenge lies in developing deeper agro-industrial value chains, diversifying products, and reducing dependence on basic commodities, whose international prices are notoriously volatile.

3.2 Energy and Fiscal Sustainability

Since the Baleine oil and gas field began operations in 2023, Côte d’Ivoire has increased its energy autonomy and the prospects for significant public revenues. In parallel, the African Development Bank has approved funded programs exceeding EUR 115 million to develop agricultural infrastructure and cross-border connectivity, emphasizing the focus on regional economic integration.

Another investment focus is youth and socio-professional capacity building, with loans of approximately EUR 139 million approved for training and youth employment projects—reflecting growing awareness of the importance of human capital for future sustainable development.

Paradoxically, while these investments build capacity, structural challenges persist—vulnerable climate, insufficient rural infrastructure, and regional inequalities—that require consistent public policies and strategic integration with international partnerships.

4. Recomposition of External Partnerships and Strategic Competition

Africa’s geoeconomic recomposition is intrinsically linked to the diversification of external partners. Although China continues to play a central role, financing and constructing large infrastructure projects across several African countries, other actors such as Gulf states, India, and Western powers are expanding their presence in diverse sectors—from renewable energy to technology and digital logistics.

This diversification of partners increases the strategic maneuvering space of African states and enables negotiation forms previously unavailable, reducing exclusive dependence on a single geopolitical bloc. However, it also intensifies international competition on the continent, with risks of asymmetric financial dependence and diplomatic pressures.

Conclusion

The possibility that Africa’s average growth rate may surpass Asia’s in 2026–2027 should be interpreted as a sign of geoeconomic recomposition, not as a simplistic inversion of traditional global hierarchies.

Africa is emerging as a central space for attracting capital, industrial projects, and multipolar strategic competition.

Between considerable opportunities—such as industrial park development, port modernization, and agro-industrial expansion—and persistent vulnerabilities—including climatic, institutional, and socio-economic challenges—the main challenge for African states is to transform still uneven quantitative growth into sustainable, inclusive, and economically durable development.

The case of Côte d’Ivoire encapsulates this contradiction: a country with vast natural resources and significant strategic investments, yet facing tensions inherent in transitioning toward a more complex and resilient economy. This tension between potential and vulnerability will be a central theme in African geoeconomic debates in the 21st century.

References for Some Ongoing Projects and Their Financing

Project	Start Year	Country(ies)	Sector	Estimated Value (USD)	Source of Financing	Status
Grand Inga Dam	Initial planning: 2010 (current phase in preparation)	DRC	Hydroelectric energy	~80 billion	International consortia + multilateral banks (World Bank, AfDB – preliminary phases)	Planned / Financial structuring
LAPSSET Corridor	2012	Kenya / South Sudan / Ethiopia	Multimodal transport (port, railway, road, pipeline)	~24 billion	Government of Kenya + PPP + Chinese and Indian capital interest	Partially under construction
Nigeria Coastal Highway (Lagos–Calabar)	2024	Nigeria	Road infrastructure	~11 billion	International syndicated credit (Deutsche Bank, Gulf banks) + Nigerian government	Under construction (initial phase)
East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP)	2023	Uganda / Tanzania	Energy / Pipeline	~3–5 billion	TotalEnergies (62%), CNOOC, UNOC, TPDC	Under construction
Bagamoyo Port Project	Initial agreement 2013 (relaunched 2022)	Tanzania	Seaport + EEZ	~10–11 billion	China Merchants Port + Oman sovereign fund + Tanzanian government	Planned / Negotiation
Mphanda Nkuwa Dam	2022 (formal reactivation)	Mozambique	Hydroelectric energy	~5 billion	EU + European Investment Bank + private partners	Financial structuring / Pre-construction
Tanzania Standard Gauge Railway (SGR)	2017	Tanzania	Railway	~10+ billion (total project)	Tanzanian government + African Development Bank + commercial banks	Under construction (advanced phases)
Kandadji Dam	2011	Niger	Hydropower + Irrigation	~1.3 billion	World Bank + African Development Bank + multilateral partners	Under construction (intermittent)
Sanankoroba Solar Plant	2024	Mali	Solar energy (200 MW)	~217 million	PPP with NovaWind (Rosatom, Russia)	Advanced preparation
Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline	Initial memorandum 2016 (technical phase active since 2022)	Nigeria / Morocco + 11 coastal countries	Regional pipeline	~25 billion	NNPC (Nigeria) + ONHYM (Morocco) + potential support from multilateral banks and Gulf investors	Active technical phase

Strategic Observations

• Predominance of the energy sector: Energy (hydroelectric, oil, gas, and renewables) represents the largest share of continental infrastructure investment.

• Hybrid financing: Most projects combine national public financing, multilateral banks (World Bank, African Development Bank, EIB), and private capital via PPPs.

• Strong Chinese and European presence: China (heavy infrastructure), EU (energy and climate), and Gulf countries (logistics and energy) appear as recurring financiers.

• Increasing regional integration: Projects such as LAPSSET, SGR, and the Nigeria–Morocco pipeline aim to consolidate cross-border economic corridors, reducing logistics costs and promoting continental integration under the AfCFTA.

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Bibliographic References

• International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook, 2024–2025.

• World Bank. World Development Indicators, 2024.

• United Nations. World Population Prospects, 2022.

• UNCTAD. World Investment Report, 2024.

• African Development Bank. African Economic Outlook, 2023.

• World Bank. Ethiopia Industrial Parks Report, 2022.

• China Exim Bank. Infrastructure Financing Reports.

• Rio Tinto; Winning Consortium Simandou. Project Documentation, 2023–2024.

• Abidjan Port Authority. Annual Reports, 2023.

• International Cocoa Organization. Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, 2024.

• World Bank. Côte d’Ivoire Economic Update, 2023.

• Sachs, J., & Warner, A. (2001). The Curse of Natural Resources. European Economic Review.

• Forum on China–Africa Cooperation. Official reports, 2024.

  
  

[1] One of the largest renewable energy projects on the continent, the Noor Solar Complex in Ouarzazate (Morocco) represents a flagship example of international investment in energy infrastructure in North Africa. The project includes several phases (Noor I, II, III, and PV1), with a total capacity exceeding 500 MW in thermal and photovoltaic solar energy, and a total estimated contract value of around €1.7 billion with international companies led by ACWA Power and European and Arab partners.

Marco Alves

Master in Political Science from the University of Paris Ouest Nanterre, in International and European Law from the University of Grenoble Alpes, and in International Relations and Business from the Paris Institute of International Relations (ILERI).

He has worked in 30 countries, including Brazil, where he spent 10 years, notably serving the Government of the State of Pernambuco as a development specialist.

He has worked for NGOs across Africa as a specialist in post-conflict economic recovery.

Currently, he is the director of an international consultancy specializing in social sciences and engineering, with operations in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, and Niger.

He serves as a correspondent for France and Europe for CBN Recife radio.

President of the Assembly of IFSRA (Institute for Social Research in Africa).

Social entrepreneur, speaker, and mentor with the international organization Make Sense.

Consultant in strategic intelligence and risk management for the private sector.