From Revolution to Vacuum: The Death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and the End of an Era in Libya

Introduction

The death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi has reignited debate about Libya’s political future and the possible end of the Gaddafi dynasty. For years, he was regarded as his father’s natural successor and the reformist face of the regime, playing a significant role in Libya’s rapprochement with the West (Vandewalle, 2012:12). After the 2011 uprising, the country plunged into a profound institutional crisis, marked by rival governments, armed militias, and territorial fragmentation (Wehrey, 2018:20).

The political instability that followed the fall of the regime turned Libya into one of the most cited examples of a fragmented state in the post–Arab Spring period. The absence of strong institutions and a structured transition process contributed to the proliferation of armed actors and the weakening of central authority (Rotberg, 2004:34).

This article analyzes the political significance of Saif al-Islam’s death through the three classic levels of analysis in International Relations: the domestic, the regional, and the systemic (Waltz, 1959:55). The central question is whether his death represents the end of the Gaddafi dynasty or merely the closure of a political cycle.

Domestic Level

At the domestic level, Saif al-Islam’s death must be interpreted in light of Libya’s institutional fragmentation since 2011. The country no longer possesses a consolidated central authority and has been dominated by militias and rival governments (Wehrey, 2018:20).

During his father’s regime, Saif al-Islam was seen as its reformist and modernizing face, promoting initiatives of economic and diplomatic opening (Vandewalle, 2012:12). This image contributed to the construction of his own political legitimacy, grounded in expectations of gradual reform.

Even after the revolution, he continued to mobilize social and tribal sectors that viewed the pre-2011 period as more stable (Lacher, 2020:20). This phenomenon demonstrates the persistence of political memories and identities associated with the former regime.

According to the literature on personalist regimes, political legitimacy in such systems depends heavily on the figure of the leader or his lineage (Geddes et al., 2018). Thus, his death represents the weakening of a symbol capable of uniting pro-Gaddafi sectors.

Regional Level

At the regional level, the Libyan crisis has become a field of geopolitical competition among powers such as Egypt, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia (Wehrey, 2018:23). These actors have supported different factions, contributing to the prolongation of the conflict.

Saif al-Islam’s presence represented a factor of uncertainty, as his potential return could have altered regional alliances and reconfigured balances of power (Lacher, 2020:34).

Libyan instability has had direct effects in the Sahel, fueling arms trafficking networks, irregular migration, and armed groups (International Crisis Group, 2016). In this context, any figure capable of mobilizing national support could have had regional impact.

Systemic Level

At the systemic level, Saif al-Islam’s death should be understood as part of the process initiated by the 2011 international intervention, which led to the regime’s collapse (Kuperman, 2013:54).

The fall of authoritarian regimes without structured transitions tends to generate fragile or failed states, incapable of guaranteeing security and basic services to the population (Rotberg, 2004:46). The Libyan case has become a paradigmatic example of this phenomenon.

Saif al-Islam symbolized the continuity of a regime that ensured a certain degree of state stability (Vandewalle, 2012:67). His death symbolically closes the possibility of returning to that political model.

Conclusion

The death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi represents a symbolic milestone in Libyan politics. At the domestic level, it weakens the symbol that mobilized nostalgic sectors of the former regime. At the regional level, it removes an alternative that could have altered the balance among factions. At the systemic level, it marks the closure of a cycle initiated with the 2011 intervention.

However, the political influence of the Gaddafi family does not disappear automatically. Tribal networks and collective memories may keep alive the idea of a return to the past. What comes to an end is the concrete possibility of a restoration led by a direct heir.

Jaime Antonio Saia

Holds a degree in International Relations and Diplomacy from the Joaquim Chissano University (Maputo, Mozambique). Master’s candidate in Conflict Resolution and Mediation. International political analyst at TVM (Televisão de Moçambique), Soico TV (STV), and Média Mais TV, as well as a columnist for Revista Zambeze. Researcher at CERES (Center for the Study of International Relations) and lecturer in social and political fields in Mozambique.

Author of the book International Relations from Mozambique.

References

Geddes, B., Wright, J., & Frantz, E. (2018). How Dictatorships Work.

International Crisis Group. (2016). The Libyan Political Agreement.

Kuperman, A. (2013). A Model Humanitarian Intervention?

Lacher, W. (2020). Libya’s Fragmentation.

Rotberg, R. (2004). When States Fail.

Vandewalle, D. (2012). A History of Modern Libya.

Waltz, K. (1959). Man, the State and War.

Wehrey, F. (2018). The Burning Shores.