Geopolitics: The Gulf States Have Become a Battlefield

Luis Augusto Medeiros Rutledge

Energy Geopolitics

In the early hours of this February 28, the skies over the Gulf States turned into an arena of explosions and missiles after Iran launched barrages of ballistic missiles and drones in response to joint U.S.-Israel attacks on its territory.

A few years ago, despite the region’s typical geopolitical uncertainties, the Gulf seemed to be merely a narrow passage between two powers, paying the price for alliances forged over decades and discovering that geography, when lent to wars, does not belong solely to its people.

The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait were not direct parties to the conflict, but the fact that they host U.S. military bases made them automatic targets, in a scenario in which the Gulf States are becoming a battlefield in the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States, raising questions about regional alliances and the humanitarian and economic losses of a war these countries did not choose.

The crisis has its roots in decades of Arab alliances with the United States since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when the Gulf States allowed the establishment of American military bases as part of a strategy to guarantee regional security.

The most prominent bases are Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts thousands of American soldiers, and the U.S. Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, tasked with ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

These countries have repeatedly warned against becoming targets, especially after the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, or during the tensions that accompanied the 12-day war between the occupying state and Iran in June 2025.

In addition, some Gulf States, such as Qatar and Oman, have in recent months sought to act as diplomatic mediators between Washington and Tehran to avoid escalation, with talks in Switzerland and Oman in January 2026. However, these efforts failed as large American forces were mobilized in the region, increasing pressure on host countries, which confirmed they would not allow their bases to be used for attacks on Iran—yet events on the ground showed otherwise.

Economically, the escalation threatens the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes. This could drive oil prices to record levels and slow global maritime transport. Gulf States have also warned of the possibility of attacks on oil facilities, in light of precedents set by Iranian military exercises in the Gulf.

Politically, these countries face a complex equation: their support for the United States clashes with the fear of being dragged into deeper conflicts, especially as they refuse to allow their territory to be used as a platform for attacks.

The question remains open as the attacks continue: are the Gulf States pressuring Washington to return to a diplomatic path, or are existing alliances deepening the conflict? For now, the Gulf appears trapped between political commitments and growing risks, paying the price of a war in which it is not the main party.

Iran committed a grave mistake by attacking the Gulf States, including lifting pre-war restrictions on the use of bases and airspace by U.S. forces, thereby turning the Gulf countries into an arena for settling scores—targeting their security, economy, and stability to increase the cost of attacking it.

The Gulf countries rejected American pressure and imposed restrictions on the use of their military bases, yet they were attacked before the occupying power that struck Iran. Tehran appears to believe that such operations will pressure its neighbors to push the U.S. government to stop the war, but these attacks reveal that they pose a real danger to the region. Now everyone is inside the Coliseum of the Middle East.

One certainty remains: the Gulf regimes are built on barrels of oil and military bases.

Luis Augusto Medeiros Rutledge is a Petroleum Engineer and Energy Geopolitics Analyst. He holds an Executive MBA in Oil and Gas Economics from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and a postgraduate degree in International Relations and Diplomacy from IBMEC. He serves as a researcher at UFRJ, Consulting Member of the Islamic World Observatory of Portugal, Consultant at the Center for Foreign Trade Studies Foundation (FUNCEX), columnist for the website Mente Mundo Relações Internacionais, and author of numerous published articles on the energy sector..