Contemporary geopolitics often seems to orbit around the statements and impulses of figures such as Donald Trump, whose relationship with institutional predictability has always been, at best, fragile. When decisions with global impact are made without coordination, without consultation, or even in contradiction with specialists — such as his former counterterrorism chief — the international system ceases to operate on rules and begins to react to impulses.

As the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, pressure on the White House also grows to demonstrate strength and deliver concrete results on the international stage. In contexts of war or prolonged instability, governments tend to seek political, military, or diplomatic victories that reinforce their domestic position and external credibility.