Qatar's 23% drop in oil revenues in Q1 2026 signals a structural decay in global energy after war escalated with Iran. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions at Ras Laffan exposed severe international logistical vulnerabilities. More than a regional crisis, this fierce shock is poised to trigger prolonged effects on global inflation, economic growth, and political stability.

The 2026 relaunch of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) is a major African geoeconomic milestone, akin to the AfCFTA. Once deemed unfeasible due to Sahel security issues, the project is now revived by a shifted strategic landscape: Europe's post-Ukraine war energy crisis, reshaped political balances in the Sahel, the rise of new regional powers, and intensifying global energy competition.

In recent years, since Vladimir Putin came to power in Russia, the distribution and control over energy flows have been used as powerful tools of foreign policy by the Kremlin. Through their use, Russia has become a key trading partner for the European Union, which, until the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, was the main destination for exports of commodities such as natural gas and oil from Russia.

Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz Conflict Directly Impacts the Global Economy—Especially China

Contemporary geopolitics often seems to orbit around the statements and impulses of figures such as Donald Trump, whose relationship with institutional predictability has always been, at best, fragile. When decisions with global impact are made without coordination, without consultation, or even in contradiction with specialists — such as his former counterterrorism chief — the international system ceases to operate on rules and begins to react to impulses.

Due the war in Iran Brazil has been developing initiatives aimed at increasing its national energy autonomy. Projects to expand refining capacity—such as the enlargement of the Abreu e Lima Refinery—seek to increase domestic diesel production, aiming to reduce national vulnerability to potential international crises related to the oil market.