Brazil in the Face of a New Energy Crisis: Multilateralism and the Search for Autonomy

 Eduardo Correia Leal Maranhão

INTRODUCTION

In recent weeks, with the onset of the conflict between Israel and the United States against Iran, which began on February 28, new geopolitical implications have started to affect the Middle East, generating consequences for the international system.

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—an area through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows—the price per barrel has risen sharply, impacting the energy procurement of several countries.

Brazil, although self-sufficient in oil reserves since the discovery of the pre-salt fields in the 2000s, still depends on the import of refined products to meet its domestic demand, as is the case with fuel imports. Consequently, with the closure of the strait and the increase in global oil prices, Brazil has been facing internal challenges related to rising fuel prices, which are reflected in social pressure from the population against the government.

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

Historically, Brazilian foreign policy has already had to deal with similar instabilities, as occurred during the two oil crises of the 1970s. In response to the first, the government developed the Proálcool program as an alternative to traditional fuel sources, resulting in beneficial consequences for national development and autonomy.

In response to the second crisis, the solution began with international loans which, although they later contributed to domestic inflation, helped foster diversification in Brazil’s external relations.

Given this historical background, the current crisis raises the question of how Brazil might once again respond to an international energy shock, and whether such a response could contribute to strengthening its autonomy.

According to Letícia Pinheiro, the pursuit of autonomy is one of the central historical characteristics of Brazilian foreign policy, which seeks to gradually increase its relative autonomy from external pressures exerted by major powers and international system events. In this sense, Brazilian diplomacy over the years—including during the Lula administration—has maintained the search for autonomy as a guiding principle of foreign policy.

During Lula’s first administration (2003–2010), the strategy known as “autonomy through diversification” was adopted, in which multilateralism became an active framework in Brazil’s diplomatic and trade relations. According to this strategy, expanding relations with different countries would grant Brasília greater commercial independence, ensuring multiple sources for exports and imports while avoiding unilateral dependence.

During this period, Brazil increased its diplomatic engagement in the Global South, expanding relations with Asian and African countries. At the same time, it pursued greater regional integration in South America, with the creation of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), demonstrating this effort.

Thus, the current crisis in the Middle East may reveal new paths that Brazil should pursue to enhance its autonomy, while also reinforcing trade relations with other countries in search of new commercial sources.

BRAZILIAN RESPONSES

With the onset of the conflict, Brent crude oil prices have already recorded increases between 7% and 13% in international trade, reaching peaks of around 55% over the course of the month. In Brazil, a direct internal consequence of this rise is reflected in the increase in diesel prices.

In March, Petrobras announced an adjustment of R$ 0.38 per liter in the price of diesel sold to distributors, reflecting the pressure exerted by international oil prices on the domestic market.

In response, Brazil has been developing initiatives aimed at increasing its national energy autonomy. Projects to expand refining capacity—such as the enlargement of the Abreu e Lima Refinery—seek to increase domestic diesel production, aiming to reduce national vulnerability to potential international crises related to the oil market.

At the same time, in certain regions, biodiesel projects have been tested as possible alternatives to fossil diesel, indicating the potential adoption of a new technological response as an energy source, similar to what was implemented during the 1970s with Proálcool.

In this way, both responses may contribute to increasing Brazil’s autonomy regarding import needs and energy vulnerability in oil derivatives, strengthening national independence in the sector.

In the short term, another response to oil instability may emerge through Brazilian trade multilateralism. In recent years, Brazil has consistently imported Russian fuels. With the easing of Western sanctions on Russian derivatives and gas, international demand for these products has grown exponentially.

In this context, with improved Brazilian trade and diplomatic relations with Russia under the Lula administration, Brazil may leverage this relationship to establish possible temporary trade agreements. At the same time, it may seek to increase imports from other fuel-exporting countries, such as India and Nigeria.

Thus, the multilateralism exercised in recent years by Brazilian diplomacy expands the country’s range of trade alternatives, which can prove useful in times of external pressure—such as the imposition of trade tariffs by the United States since 2025—and during crises in international trade, as in the current scenario.

Therefore, although it brings negative domestic consequences, such as rising fuel prices, the current regional instabilities in the Middle East may ultimately lead to increased Brazilian autonomy and development. Simultaneously, they may strengthen trade ties with other countries in the energy and commodities sectors, helping to offset reduced trade with Middle Eastern nations.

REFERENCES

FRANCO, Luciana. CNN Brasil, March 16, 2026. Accessed March 24, 2026.

Agência Petrobras, December 2, 2025. Accessed March 24, 2026.

NEVES, Ernesto. Veja, March 23, 2026. Accessed March 24, 2026.

RUDDY, Gabriela. Eixos, March 16, 2026. Accessed March 24, 2026.

G1, March 13, 2026. Accessed March 24, 2026.

KRAMER, Vandré. Gazeta do Povo, March 2, 2026. Accessed March 24, 2026.

PINHEIRO, Letícia. Brazilian Foreign Policy (1889–2002). Rio de Janeiro: Zahar, 2004.

Eduardo Correia Leal Maranhão

Undergraduate student in International Relations at La Salle University (RJ), with an interest in foreign policy, geopolitics, and international security. He serves as a researcher on the Europe region at the Situation Assessment Center (NAC) of the Brazilian Naval War College and completed a volunteer internship at the Brazilian Joint Center for Peace Operations, supporting UN peacekeeper training. He was a bronze medalist in the Brazilian Geopolitics Olympiad, organized by Seleta Educação, and achieved high-performance recognition in the Brazilian Odyssey of Diplomacy and International Relations, organized by Grupo Ubique Júnior.