European Union: Agriculture and Food on the Path to Food and Climate Security

Luis Augusto Medeiros Rutledge

Energy Geopolitics

Agriculture and food are at the center of two of the greatest strategic issues of the 21st century: global food security and climate change. The sector is no longer merely an economic activity linked to rural production; it has come to occupy a structural position in the geopolitical, energy, environmental, and social stability of today’s world.

The war between Russia and Ukraine revealed how fertilizers, diesel, natural gas, and agricultural exports are deeply interconnected. Countries dependent on imports of wheat, corn, nitrogen fertilizers, and agricultural diesel began to face food inflation, energy insecurity, and the risk of supply shortages. Today, the oil crisis in the Strait of Hormuz further intensifies the interconnection between geopolitics, agriculture, and food security.

Today, agriculture is the backbone of global food security. Global population growth, accelerated urbanization, energy dependence, and changing food consumption patterns are significantly increasing pressure on agricultural systems. The expectation that the global population will rise to approximately 9 to 10 billion people by 2050 requires expanded agricultural productivity in a scenario of limited natural resources.

As hunger and global temperatures continue to rise, food systems are assuming a central role in both challenges simultaneously — as essential food suppliers and major drivers of climate change. This dual role places them at the center of two urgent global objectives: achieving zero hunger, as established in the Sustainable Development Goals, and limiting global warming to 1.5°C, a target defined by the Paris Agreement and increasingly difficult to achieve.

Europe is particularly noteworthy: it is the world’s largest food trader, the leading financier of international agricultural research, and a global actor in climate ambition. However, European Union (EU) food policy is entering a period of recalibration. Current changes in the European agricultural sector raise urgent questions regarding the EU’s ability to align its food and climate objectives and about the cascading effects on its partners in the Global South — particularly Africa — considering ongoing hunger and climate challenges.

EU food systems represent a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, although progress in reducing these emissions remains relatively slow. Currently, European food systems emit approximately 1.15 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂eq), corresponding to around 34% of the bloc’s total emissions.

Despite this, the European agricultural sector stands out as one of the few globally to have gradually reduced greenhouse gas emissions over recent decades. Nevertheless, this progress remains limited, even in light of the EU’s substantial climate investments and environmental policies.

Furthermore, as sectors such as energy and industry move more rapidly toward decarbonization, the relative share of food systems in the bloc’s total emissions tends to increase. Although there has been a reduction in the emission intensity of European agricultural production — meaning lower emissions per unit produced — this efficiency gain has been partially offset by increased food production and the persistence of energy-, transport-, and input-intensive agri-food chains.

This scenario highlights the complexity of the climate transition in the agri-food sector, where food security, economic competitiveness, and environmental goals must be reconciled simultaneously.

EU food policy is constantly evolving and exerts strong influence over agricultural production, international trade, and environmental sustainability. At the European level, the bloc plays a central role in shaping policies related to agriculture, food security, regulatory standards, trade agreements, and the promotion of science and innovation.

One of the main instruments of this system is the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), considered one of the largest agricultural subsidy programs in the world. Historically, the CAP was criticized for its distortive effects on international markets, particularly for encouraging European agricultural overproduction. However, reforms implemented since 2013 have significantly reduced these impacts, although some effects on competitiveness and international trade still remain. Today, European subsidies focus less on increasing production and more on supporting farmers’ incomes, environmental preservation, and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices.

In recent years, climate policy has increasingly influenced European food policy. The launch of the European Green Deal in 2019, with the objective of making the continent climate-neutral by 2050, more directly incorporated the agri-food sector into the EU’s environmental strategies. In this context, initiatives such as the Farm to Fork Strategy and biodiversity strategies emerged, representing the first broader attempt to address the sustainability of the entire food system — not just agriculture — as a political priority.

These initiatives, however, have generated intense debate. Some critics argue that measures aimed at reducing emissions, restricting agricultural inputs, and expanding environmental requirements may reduce European agricultural productivity, affect exports, and put pressure on global food prices. At the same time, rural producers have expressed concerns about possible losses in competitiveness compared to imports from countries subject to less stringent environmental and labor standards.

This scenario contributed to the increase in farmers’ protests across several European countries between 2023 and 2024. Many producers claimed there was a competitive imbalance between EU farmers and external competitors, especially regarding the environmental requirements imposed by the European bloc. As a consequence, interests linked to the agricultural sector gained greater political influence in national governments and in the European Parliament.

In response to political and social pressures, the EU began to relax or postpone some climate-related measures affecting the agricultural sector and initiated a “strategic dialogue” on the future of European agriculture. These discussions influenced, in February 2025, the formulation of a new political direction known as the Vision for Agriculture and Food, aimed at realigning sustainability, competitiveness, and food security within the bloc’s agricultural policies.

The EU is a major advocate of global food security and a leader in climate mitigation and adaptation. It is the world’s largest food trader and Africa’s most important agricultural importer and exporter. The bloc faces the enormous challenge of transforming its food system from a major greenhouse gas emitter into a net carbon sink, but progress remains slow: the share of emissions generated by the EU food system is increasing, particularly as other EU sectors decarbonize more rapidly.

A new scenario is beginning to emerge with the advancement of the trade agreement between Mercosur and the EU. The consolidation of this agreement is expected to intensify discussions on agricultural competitiveness, food security, sustainability, and strategic dependence between the blocs.

Therefore, it will be essential to observe how the European agricultural sector positions itself and negotiates within a more open trade environment, especially in areas considered sensitive to European agriculture. The agreement exposes structural vulnerabilities in the European agricultural system, particularly regarding production costs, stricter environmental requirements, and competition with major South American agricultural exporters.

At the same time, the new scenario broadens the debate on the interdependence between food security, energy security, and climate transition. The tendency is for these issues to become increasingly integrated, influencing agricultural policies, logistics chains, international trade, environmental regulation, and geopolitical strategies in both Europe and South America.

Luis Augusto Medeiros Rutledge is a Petroleum Engineer and Energy Geopolitics Analyst. He holds an Executive MBA in Oil and Gas Economics from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and a postgraduate degree in International Relations and Diplomacy from IBMEC. He works as a researcher at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, serves as a Consulting Member of the Observatory of the Islamic World of Portugal, is a consultant for the FUNCEX – Foundation Center for Foreign Trade Studies, a columnist for the website Mente Mundo Relações Internacionais, and the author of numerous published articles on the energy sector.