Geopolitics: an obstacle to advances in the energy transition

Luis Augusto Medeiros Rutledge

Energy Geopolitics

In the year when the Paris Agreement turns ten and COP30 takes place, numerous challenges in implementing clean energy policies make it clear that achieving carbon neutrality in the coming decades is not feasible. In reality, there is no energy transition underway, but rather a continuous addition of energy from multiple sources.

The mismatch between the idea of an energy transition and outdated infrastructure, unequal investment, and strong dependence on fossil fuels constitute major barriers to achieving a sustainable global energy system in the short term. Below, we highlight some of the key limitations to sustainability.

One of the main constraints is found in developing countries, where energy infrastructures have for decades been designed for fossil fuels, and where the need to produce oil and gas as engines of development continues to grow.The clearest example of the gap between embracing renewable energy and relinquishing potentially lucrative oil reserves is the African continent. While China, the United States and Brazil lead in technological innovation and investment in clean energy, African countries continue to invest heavily in the production and exploitation of fossil fuels. This disparity reduces the overall impact in the fight against climate change and perpetuates an unequal energy transition.

The expansion of fossil fuel production in Africa—largely driven by Western oil companies—translates into economic development and increased access to energy. Africa currently accounts for more than three-quarters of the global deficit in energy access. Nearly half of the continent’s population still lacks access to electricity. Despite high and growing local demand, most investments in African oil and gas come from outside the continent, primarily driven by Europe’s need to secure its own energy supply.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Africa’s population is growing at twice the global average, and as a result, energy demand is expected to increase by more than 50% by 2040 under current policies. Despite this, around 600 million Africans still live without access to electricity, while millions more endure frequent power outages.

Another limiting factor is the imbalance between energy demand and supply. When climate policies promote the integration of solar, wind and biofuel energy, they aim to reduce the gradual presence of coal, gas and oil—a replacement process widely described as the energy transition. However, the massive increase in energy demand means that all available sources are needed, preventing an immediate decline in traditional fuels. Multiple indicators suggest that global renewable energy production will more than double by 2040, particularly in Europe.

Nevertheless, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to grow by 50%, driven by the increasing use of regasification plants. Another important point is that oil surpassed coal as the world’s primary energy source in the 1960s. Today, the world uses three times more coal than it did then, which shows that all energy sources are becoming increasingly necessary to meet rising global demand. What we see is not a transition, but an addition of energy, driven by continuing resource needs.

It is important to note that the shift toward clean energy systems has a major impact on global value chains, on the geoeconomic strategies of major players, and on the machinery of a global economy deeply rooted in oil.

Equally significant is the role of international relations in either limiting or accelerating a sustainable transition. Over the past years—COP30 included—debates on energy transition have been shaped more by geopolitics and geoeconomics than by research and technological innovation.

The geoeconomic competition surrounding the energy transition—among countries and economic blocs—reflects the desire to lead in clean technologies that offer strategic advantages, employment opportunities and global influence. At the same time, international cooperation becomes essential: without multilateral agreements, technology transfer and climate financing, many developing countries are left out of the energy transition and remain dependent on fossil fuels and on producing countries.

Today, we are in an intermediate stage of the shift toward clean energy—a stage that may last decades. Clean and fossil energy systems are large enough to meet current global demand, but not large enough to independently support the coming decades of population growth, development and rising energy needs. Consequently, energy will likely remain a central element around which international relations are structured.

Energy constitutes the fundamental pillar upon which contemporary international relations rest. More than a commodity traded in global markets, energy powers economies, enables transportation, and sustains global development. Its role extends far beyond economics, deeply intertwining with national security, macroeconomic stability, and diplomatic influence.

The energy transition is reshaping international relations by introducing new commodities that will become decisive in diplomatic negotiations and interstate cooperation.

COP30 provided a privileged forum for political commitments around sustainability. However, deep social, economic and geopolitical inequalities continue to hinder the fluidity and effectiveness of the transition process.

The global shift toward sustainable energy systems has also created substantial divergences among nations. Developed countries—typically endowed with greater financial and technological capacity—are able to adopt ambitious decarbonization targets supported by rapid renewable expansion, nuclear power, or carbon capture technologies. Developing countries, including many in Africa, often prioritize economic growth and poverty reduction, maintaining short-term dependence on more affordable fossil fuels and viewing the energy transition simultaneously as a burden and a potential source of new dependencies.

The convergence of geopolitical considerations and the dynamics of the energy transition will play a strategic role in shaping a global model of sustainable development.

Finally, the situation becomes even more concerning when the competition to host COP31, scheduled for 2026, is increasingly driven by geopolitical considerations.Geopolitics and energy: a relationship of power.

Luis Augusto Medeiros Rutledge is a Petroleum Engineer and Energy Geopolitics Analyst. He holds an Executive MBA in Petroleum and Gas Economics from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and a postgraduate degree in International Relations and Diplomacy from IBMEC. He is a researcher at UFRJ, a Consulting Member of the Observatory of the Islamic World in Portugal, a Consultant for the Brazilian Center for Foreign Trade Studies Foundation (FUNCEX), a columnist at Mente Mundo Relações Internacionais, and the author of numerous published articles on the energy sector.